Does the draw day change what Mega Millions produces?
Mega Millions has been drawn as 5 numbers from 70 plus a Mega Ball from 24 since April 2025. Everything on this page counts only the 158 draws since that change.
A Friday Mega Millions draw has averaged 34.92 against 36.31 on Tuesday, a difference of -1.39. Chance predicts 0.00.
The two nights do not cover the same stretch of history: Tuesday has 79 draws going back to 2025-04-08, Friday has 79 since 2025-04-11. The pool has not changed in that time, so chance predicts no difference between them at all.
What was measured read from the dates
The draw nights are counted from the dates themselves, not assumed. This record holds 2 nights: Tuesday 79, Friday 79.
The schedule is the denominator, and it is uneven. Setting a number's count on one night against half of its appearances would make every number look like a Tuesday number, because that night simply held more draws. Each expectation here is instead summed draw by draw from the pool of the draw it belongs to, over exactly the draws a number was eligible for. A number that only entered the pool later is measured against the nights that ran after it arrived, not against the whole record.
Each night 158 draws
| Night | Draws | Since | Average | Chance | SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | 79 | 2025-04-08 | 36.31 | 35.50 | +0.82 |
| Friday | 79 | 2025-04-11 | 34.92 | 35.50 | -0.59 |
Red marks a figure outside the range ordinary variation produces
The Chance column is not the same for every night, and that is the whole point. It is the average of 5/pool arithmetic over the draws that night actually held, so a night whose record reaches further back carries whatever pool sizes were in force then. Comparing the nights against one shared figure would manufacture a difference that is only the calendar.
Recent trend blocks of 20 draws
result for the blockrange ordinary variation allowsoutside that range
Each point is the average number drawn across one block of 20 draws, both nights together. The band is what chance predicts for those draws from their own pools, which is why it is not a flat line: when the pool grows, the predicted average rises with it. That step is the same effect that gives the two nights different predicted averages above.
Applied to this draw draw 158 · 2026-10-09
Draw 158 fell on a Friday and drew 0207166370. Its numbers average 31.60, where chance predicts 35.50 for any draw from 70 numbers. Friday draws have averaged 34.92 over 79 draws.
Of its 5 numbers, 0 have come up more often on Friday than chance predicts, and 0 more often on Tuesday. That is a reading of the past, not a property of the numbers.
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