How far are Mega Millions numbers from the last draw?
Mega Millions has been drawn as 5 numbers from 70 plus a Mega Ball from 24 since April 2025. Everything on this page counts only the 158 draws since that change.
20.6% of all Mega Millions numbers have landed within 1 of a number from the draw right before them. Chance predicts 20.2%.
Give every drawn number one value: the distance to the nearest number in the previous draw. 0 means it repeated, 1 means it sat right beside one. Across 157 consecutive pairs the busiest single distance is 1, at 12.7% against a predicted 13.1%. That is the class chance points at too. A distance of 1 is a bigger target than a repeat: each number of the previous draw has up to two neighbours but only one self.
What was measured one value per drawn number
Take two draws in a row. For each of the 5 numbers in the later draw, find the nearest number in the earlier one and write down the distance. A repeat scores 0. A number one step above or below scores 1. Direction is ignored: if the earlier draw held 17, then 16and18 each score 1.
Every predicted value on this page is computed draw by draw and then added up, never from one share applied to the whole history. How many pool positions sit at a given distance depends on where the previous draw's numbers happened to land: a draw whose numbers cluster shares its neighbours and leaves fewer positions at distance 1, a spread draw leaves more. The pool has stayed at 70 numbers throughout, and the per draw computation is still needed, because the neighbour positions move with every draw.
The record 157 pairs, 785 numbers
Red marks a figure outside the range ordinary variation produces
| Distance | Positions | Drawn | Share | Chance | SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 62 | 7.90% | 7.14% | +0.85 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 100 | 12.74% | 13.07% | -0.28 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 89 | 11.34% | 11.51% | -0.16 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 86 | 10.96% | 10.17% | +0.75 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 76 | 9.68% | 8.83% | +0.87 |
| 5 | 5.2 | 55 | 7.01% | 7.50% | -0.54 |
| 6 or more | 29.2 | 317 | 40.38% | 41.78% | -0.83 |
Positions is how many numbers of the pool sat at that distance, averaged over the pairs. It is the size of the target, and it is why the classes are not equal. SE is the gap between drawn and predicted divided by one standard error. The last row bundles every distance of 6 and above, so it is large by construction and does not compete with the single distances above it. Seven classes are read here, so one of them sitting near 2 standard errors is the ordinary cost of reading seven, not a finding.
Recent trend last 100 draws, then blocks of 20
result for the blockrange ordinary variation allowsoutside that range
Each point is one block of 20 draws: the share of that block's numbers that landed within 1 of the draw before. The band is what chance predicts for that block, computed from those draws' own pools, which is why it is not a flat line. A point outside the band is marked.
Applied to this draw draw 158 · 2026-10-09
Draw 158 drew 0207166370. The draw before it, 157, drew 2632425154. Measuring the later against the earlier gives an average distance of 15.60, where chance predicted 7.39 for that particular pair.
| Number | Distance to nearest in draw 157 |
|---|---|
| 02 | 24 |
| 07 | 19 |
| 16 | 10 |
| 63 | 9 |
| 70 | 16 |
The pool around draw 158 what the next draw is measured against
14 of the 70 numbers sit within 1 of draw 158, so chance predicts 1.00 of the next draw's 5 numbers from that group. Over the whole record that group has returned 20.6% of numbers against a predicted 20.2%.
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