Do shifted Mega Millions numbers come back?
Mega Millions has been drawn as 5 numbers from 70 plus a Mega Ball from 24 since April 2025. Everything on this page counts only the 158 draws since that change.
Adding one to every number in a Mega Millions draw lands 0.29 of them in the next draw, on average. Chance predicts 0.36. So does every other shift.
Across 157 pairs of consecutive draws, the 70 possible shifts range from 0.28 (+23) to 0.43 (+44) — a spread of 0.15 of a number. Not one of them sits outside the range ordinary variation produces.
What was measured
Red marks a figure outside the range ordinary variation produces
How to read this the method, in four lines
Take a draw. Add the same number to each of its 5 numbers, wrapping round the top of the pool so that 70 plus one becomes 1. Count how many of the results came up in the next draw. Repeat for every pair on record, and for every shift from no shift at all up to 69.
A shifted set is simply some set of 5 numbers, so what chance predicts is the same as for any 5 numbers you could name: 0.36 of them per draw. The dashed band on each bar is the range an average this size wanders in on its own (0.27 to 0.45). A bar inside the band has found nothing.
Every shift, against what chance predicts 70 shifts · 157 pairs
| Shift | Hits in total | Per draw | vs chance | fewermore |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no shift | 62 | 0.395 | +10.6% | |
| +1 | 45 | 0.287 | -19.7% | |
| +2 | 57 | 0.363 | +1.7% | |
| +3 | 64 | 0.408 | +14.1% | |
| +4 | 58 | 0.369 | +3.4% | |
| +5 | 50 | 0.318 | -10.8% | |
| +6 | 54 | 0.344 | -3.7% | |
| +7 | 60 | 0.382 | +7.0% | |
| +8 | 54 | 0.344 | -3.7% | |
| +9 | 59 | 0.376 | +5.2% | |
| +10 | 59 | 0.376 | +5.2% | |
| +11 | 56 | 0.357 | -0.1% | |
| +12 | 54 | 0.344 | -3.7% | |
| +13 | 61 | 0.389 | +8.8% | |
| +14 | 62 | 0.395 | +10.6% | |
| +15 | 61 | 0.389 | +8.8% | |
| +16 | 51 | 0.325 | -9.0% | |
| +17 | 56 | 0.357 | -0.1% | |
| +18 | 50 | 0.318 | -10.8% | |
| +19 | 58 | 0.369 | +3.4% | |
| +20 | 59 | 0.376 | +5.2% | |
| +21 | 49 | 0.312 | -12.6% | |
| +22 | 64 | 0.408 | +14.1% | |
| +23 | 44 | 0.280 | -21.5% | |
| +24 | 65 | 0.414 | +15.9% | |
| +25 | 68 | 0.433 | +21.3% | |
| +26 | 62 | 0.395 | +10.6% | |
| +27 | 58 | 0.369 | +3.4% | |
| +28 | 50 | 0.318 | -10.8% | |
| +29 | 55 | 0.350 | -1.9% | |
| +30 | 48 | 0.306 | -14.4% | |
| +31 | 44 | 0.280 | -21.5% | |
| +32 | 64 | 0.408 | +14.1% | |
| +33 | 64 | 0.408 | +14.1% | |
| +34 | 50 | 0.318 | -10.8% | |
| +35 | 52 | 0.331 | -7.3% | |
| +36 | 68 | 0.433 | +21.3% | |
| +37 | 54 | 0.344 | -3.7% | |
| +38 | 57 | 0.363 | +1.7% | |
| +39 | 61 | 0.389 | +8.8% | |
| +40 | 64 | 0.408 | +14.1% | |
| +41 | 51 | 0.325 | -9.0% | |
| +42 | 44 | 0.280 | -21.5% | |
| +43 | 52 | 0.331 | -7.3% | |
| +44 | 68 | 0.433 | +21.3% | |
| +45 | 60 | 0.382 | +7.0% | |
| +46 | 54 | 0.344 | -3.7% | |
| +47 | 55 | 0.350 | -1.9% | |
| +48 | 62 | 0.395 | +10.6% | |
| +49 | 51 | 0.325 | -9.0% | |
| +50 | 59 | 0.376 | +5.2% | |
| +51 | 58 | 0.369 | +3.4% | |
| +52 | 51 | 0.325 | -9.0% | |
| +53 | 47 | 0.299 | -16.2% | |
| +54 | 56 | 0.357 | -0.1% | |
| +55 | 52 | 0.331 | -7.3% | |
| +56 | 45 | 0.287 | -19.7% | |
| +57 | 48 | 0.306 | -14.4% | |
| +58 | 62 | 0.395 | +10.6% | |
| +59 | 63 | 0.401 | +12.4% | |
| +60 | 52 | 0.331 | -7.3% | |
| +61 | 57 | 0.363 | +1.7% | |
| +62 | 54 | 0.344 | -3.7% | |
| +63 | 52 | 0.331 | -7.3% | |
| +64 | 51 | 0.325 | -9.0% | |
| +65 | 47 | 0.299 | -16.2% | |
| +66 | 67 | 0.427 | +19.5% | |
| +67 | 50 | 0.318 | -10.8% | |
| +68 | 63 | 0.401 | +12.4% | |
| +69 | 63 | 0.401 | +12.4% |
The tick is what chance predicts. The dashed band either side of it is ordinary variation. Right of the tick means the shift landed more numbers than predicted, left means fewer.
The recent run the +1 shift, latest 140 pairs
Over the last 100 pairs of draws, adding one to every number landed 0.28 of them in the next draw on average. Over the whole record it is 0.29, and chance predicts 0.36. That is inside the range ordinary variation allows for 100 pairs.
result for the blockrange ordinary variation allowsoutside that range
A good run says where the measure has been, not where it is going. Each draw is drawn afresh, and a shifted number is exactly as likely as any other.
Applied to the latest draw draw 158 · 2026-10-09
The latest draw:
Add one to each and the numbers to watch for are:
The shift that did best over the last 100 pairs is +44 (0.53 per draw against a predicted 0.36). Applied to the latest draw it gives:
The best recent shift is the best of 70 shifts over a short run, and the best of 70 is ahead by definition; next month another shift will lead. Every number in the pool has the same 5 in 70 chance of appearing in the next draw.
Why the best one is not a discovery
+44 comes out on top, at +21.3%. That is the sort of number a rule gets written around — but it is the best of 70 tries, and the best of 70 tries is above average by definition. Ask 70 questions of any random record and the luckiest answer will look like this one.
The test is whether it keeps doing it. +44 was measured over draws that have already happened; nothing here says anything about the next one. What the page does show is the shape of the whole set: every shift sits within 22% of the same figure, and no shift behaves differently from the rest. What you do with that is up to you.
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