How low and how high has a Mega Millions draw added up?
Mega Millions has been drawn as 5 numbers from 70 plus a Mega Ball from 24 since April 2025. Everything on this page counts only the 158 draws since that change.
The five numbers in a Mega Millions draw have added up to as little as 78 and as much as 288, around a predicted average of 177.5.
Over 158 draws the average total is 178.1 against that predicted 177.5, and chance predicts 1.62 draws at or below the floor and 0.70 at or above the ceiling over the same draws.
What was measured the total of a draw
Add the numbers in a draw together. A draw of 0513151728 totals 78. Low totals need numbers packed at the bottom of the pool and high totals need them packed at the top, so both ends are rare, and the middle is crowded for the same reason a pair of dice lands on seven more often than on two.
For five numbers taken from a pool of N the predicted total is 5(N + 1)/2, and the exact chance of every total comes from counting how many number sets add to it. This game has drawn from one pool of 70 numbers throughout, so the per draw sum and a single average agree. The sum is kept anyway, because it stays right if the pool ever changes.
The record 158 draws
Red marks a figure outside the range ordinary variation produces
| Total, against its predicted value | Draws | Share | Chance | SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 SE or more below | 3 | 1.90% | 2.11% | -0.19 |
| 1 to 2 SE below | 18 | 11.39% | 14.19% | -1.01 |
| within 1 SE below | 59 | 37.34% | 33.70% | +0.97 |
| within 1 SE above | 53 | 33.54% | 33.70% | -0.04 |
| 1 to 2 SE above | 21 | 13.29% | 14.19% | -0.32 |
| 2 SE or more above | 4 | 2.53% | 2.11% | +0.37 |
Each draw is placed by how far its total sits from what its own pool predicts, so the bands mean the same thing in every format. SE is the gap between seen and predicted divided by one standard error. Most draws land just below the predicted total, while chance puts just above the predicted total first. The first and last rows are open ended tails, so they gather everything beyond two standard errors and are not in that comparison. Six rows are read here and none sits outside the range ordinary variation produces.
The five lowest totals on record
The five highest totals on record
Nothing in these two lists is marked red, and that is deliberate: the floor and the ceiling of 158 draws are extreme because they are the floor and the ceiling, not because anything pushed them there. A row picked for being far from prediction cannot also be evidence that something is far from prediction. The reading that means something is the count beside them. A total of 78 or lower has turned up once where chance predicts 1.62, and 288 or higher once where chance predicts 0.70. Put the other way, over a record this long chance gives about 80 chances in 100 of a floor at least that low, and about 50 in 100 of a ceiling at least that high. The pool has been one size throughout, so ordering by the raw total and ordering by distance from prediction come to the same thing.
Recent trend last 100 draws, then blocks of 20
result for the blockrange ordinary variation allowsoutside that range
Each point is the average total of one block of 20 draws, oldest on the left. The band is what chance predicts for those same draws, computed from their own pools, which is why it is not a flat line: when the pool grows, the predicted total grows with it. A point outside the band is marked.
Applied to this draw draw 158 · 2026-10-09
That total is 0.44 SE below what a draw from 70 numbers predicts, and the chance of a total at or below it is 33.7%. 47 of the 158 draws on record added up to less, and 1 matched it exactly.
Those are the narrowest windows around the predicted total holding half and nine tenths of every possible draw, so this one sits inside the half. A window is a description of the 158 draws already in the book and of every draw that could be made from this pool; it is not a fence around the next one.
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